[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232302 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT...CENTRAL/WRN ND...AND NRN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 775...

VALID 232302Z - 240030Z

CONTINUE WW.

AT 2230Z...ARC OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR A 996MB SURFACE
LOW IN NERN MT SEWD ACROSS SWRN ND JUST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP
DRYLINE. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD INTO
CENTRAL ND...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/KG/ NOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN ND. BEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH HAS
NOW LIFTED NORTH OF BIS. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60 IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE AND ONGOING
CONVECTION. BIS RADAR SUGGESTS MOST INTENSE CONVECTION NOW OVER
HETTINGER COUNTY WILL CONTINUE NEWD...AND INTERACT WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS MORTON COUNTY ND BETWEEN 00-01Z. CHARACTER OF
CONVECTIVE ROLLS NEAR BIS RADAR AND STRONG VEERING IN BIS VAD
SUGGEST THESE SUPERCELLS WILL ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FOR TORNADO PRODUCTION BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION OF 20F AT BIS IS A BIT HIGH...BUT OTHER FACTORS SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL ND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z-02Z.

..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

44820277 48650495 48670075 44859887 

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