[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232230 
IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...EXTREME NRN IA AND SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232230Z - 240030Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
NECESSARY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.

THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA INTO SRN MN AND NERN
SD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO OBSERVED LIFTING NWD THROUGH NRN IA
AND INTO SERN SD. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL
AS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED
BY ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY ROTATE...ESPECIALLY
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR UPDRAFT
LONGEVITY. ALSO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

42979137 43259632 43809759 45739794 44149121 

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