[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232048 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NW OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232048Z - 232245Z

ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED LATER ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.


SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM WRN KS TO THE
TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXISTS ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH A CU
FIELD EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION....FORECAST SOUNDING FOR CDS AT 00Z
SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...THE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE
INITIATION OCCURS. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

35119994 35800040 37490103 38430080 38589938 37169825
35539814 

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