[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232037 
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-232230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEB...AND NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232037Z - 232230Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS WRN
NEB SWD INTO NWRN KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

AT 2030Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE. THE
DRYLINE PRESENTLY EXTENDS N-S FROM ROUGHLY 60W VTN TO 30 NW IML AND
SWD ACROSS FAR WRN KS. INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG NEAR THE
DRYLINE TO 3000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM BBW TO HLC.

ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSITY ACROSS
W-CENTRAL NEB...AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
MOVES EWD AT ROUGHLY 15 KT AND ENCOUNTERS BETTER THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AREA PROFILES INDICATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30KT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

41170204 42020205 42950152 42959844 42029839 40259852
38919857 38990190 

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