[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231958 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...AND FAR SERN SD...AND
SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231958Z - 232200Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...AND FAR SERN SD. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. 

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 30 SW LNK NNEWD TO 25 S
SUX. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM A LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS NWRN MO. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITH OUTFLOW FROM THIS SAME CLUSTER
ACROSS CENTRAL IA...AND ALSO ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR
SERN SD EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IA. 

PRESENCE OF LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH MINIMAL CIN. LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS THE LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN NEB TO CENTRAL
IA...WITH AREA VAD PROFILES SHOWING VALUES OF 10-15 KT. FURTHER
NORTH...SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER ALONG THE WARM FRONT
/25KT/...WHICH MAY SUPPORT LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ACROSS SERN SD...NRN IA...AND
SRN MN. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

40599589 41189515 41739287 42169234 42789189 43449180
44019228 43989451 43889629 43779743 42989769 42519791
42149809 41509814 40689784 40419761 40419686 

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