[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231922 
SDZ000-NDZ000-232115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ND AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231922Z - 232115Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD NWD INTO CENTRAL ND. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. 

AT 19Z...DRYLINE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED FROM FAR SERN MT SSWWD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO THE
ERN NEB PANHANDLE REGION. STRONG NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD ARE BOTH CONTRIBUTING TO
RAPID DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG IN
A NARROW AXIS FROM VTN-PIR-25 W MBG. AS STRONG UPPER VORT CENTER
OVER E-CENTRAL MT CONTINUES EWD WITH ASSOCIATED 50KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVING FROM WY INTO WRN SD...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A NNW-SSE LINE FROM THE
ND BORDER ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
40-45KT AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INTERSECTION OF
NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER MAY
PROVIDE A LOCAL FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL SRH AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD...WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
TORNADOES MOVING INTO SRN/CENTRAL ND.

..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

43960196 44870221 45710270 47710240 47849934 46079910
45539895 44899890 44089887 43559882 43129883 43059942
43130189 

WWWW