[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231859 
NDZ000-MTZ000-232100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231859Z - 232100Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ERN MT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EWD INTO
WRN ND WITH THE TORNADO THREAT INCREASING BY 22Z. A WW WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS SE MT WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS FAR SE MT INTO CNTRL SD. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S
F...IS HELPING NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
ACROSS ECNTRL MT. AS THESE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY
AXIS WHICH EXISTS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO FAR WRN ND AND NW SD. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS AND
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

48560706 48810602 48350367 47520245 46780215 46040289
46000354 46080432 46670561 47270742 47740776 

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