[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230714 
KSZ000-OKZ000-230915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN 

VALID 230714Z - 230915Z

NEED FOR WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST HOUR
OR TWO...SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KS INTO THE GAGE
OK AREA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
HAS BECOME FOCUSED...AS IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL 
WESTERLIES MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED GRADUAL
VEERING OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD STRENGTHENS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS...EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF WICHITA BY 12Z. 
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT WILL BE MARGINALIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES.  WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...RISK OF
GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.  HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAIN MAY BECOME
PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW MOVING TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS.

..KERR.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37279981 37579895 37829819 38119727 37999682 37379543
36759547 36409621 36369707 36159824 36349907 36509997 

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