[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230032 
SDZ000-230230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230032Z - 230230Z

THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS
WRN SD THROUGH 03Z. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
AND CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...SO A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE NECESSARY.

EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN SD NWWD
THROUGH NERN WY. THE 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSER RATES AND A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000
J/KG DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN
EWD MOVING LINE OF STORMS OVER EXTREME SWRN SD THAT DEVELOPED IN A
ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH WY. ELY
LOW LEVEL INFLOW UNDERNEATH WLY 25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS QUITE
NARROW...AND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CAPE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR
BOWING STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..DIAL.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

44320168 43500032 43050123 43120245 44460325 

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