[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222357 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL MT...FAR ERN ID...AND NWRN/WRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774...

VALID 222357Z - 230130Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL MT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS ERN ID INTO WRN/NWRN WY WITH
LOCALIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS MT AT 23Z. A 999MB SURFACE LOW
OVER S-CENTRAL MT LIES ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
AXIS WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN CTB AND HVR.
MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3MB/2HR CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF THIS
TROUGH. FURTHER EAST...COOLER AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED INTO NERN MT
WHERE A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXISTS FROM ROUGHLY 15S GGW ESEWD
INTO FAR SWRN ND.

IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND ACROSS NWRN CONUS WITH
STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF MT/WY THROUGH 09Z.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO
THIS POINT. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IN LWT VICINITY AT 2330Z WILL
INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE DURING NEXT 1-2
HOURS...HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THERE. OTHER NARROW BANDS OF STORMS MOVING
THROUGH ERN ID AND FAR S-CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING REFLECTIVITY SEGMENTS. WIND
GUSTS TO 37KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THE TRAILING LINE AT PIH AT
2302Z...WITH LINE MOTION BETWEEN 35-40KT. THIS BAND MAY BRING
LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS TO THE MTNS OF NWRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL JET OF 60-65 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

..BANACOS.. 08/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

43091242 45051286 45051286 47221241 47841227 48931220
48990720 45340762 43560814 42820902 42281101 

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