[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222202 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH NRN NEB INTO NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222202Z - 230000Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
AND NRN NEB AND EVENTUALLY EWD THROUGH NERN NEB AND NW IA. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN IA
SWWD THROUGH NRN NEB. A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB NEWD TO N
CNTRL NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE E-W ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SE OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM CNTRL
NEB NEWD INTO NW IA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB
PORTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND
90. FARTHER EAST INTO IA...BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONFLUENT ZONE HAS
SLOWED HEATING...SO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
TO BE REACHED IN THIS AREA. FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
ARE MARGINAL AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOME ROTATION AT TIMES AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE E-W
BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 08/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

42170037 42339878 43129571 42629512 41979683 41209920
40180035 40110112 41130060 

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