[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222047 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222047Z - 222245Z

SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS NERN
TX PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO ADJACENT NWRN OK...THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF TCU FROM SWRN LIPSCOMB COUNTY TX SWWD INTO
CARSON COUNTY...ROUGHLY COLOCATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY CONFLUENCE
LINE THAT HAS PERSISTED IN SFC ANALYSES SINCE 14Z.  AIR MASS ALONG
AND E OF CONVECTIVE/CONFLUENCE LINE IS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...WITH PEAK HEATING OCCURRING ATTM AND MOIST ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM SERN PANHANDLE AND SW OK.  RUC/ETA FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS NOW PRACTICALLY UNCAPPED.  EXPECT SFC
DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO 60S WHERE NOW IN UPPER 50S...AND TO
INCREASE INTO MID-UPPER 60S WHERE NOW IN LOW 60S.  THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...AND EACH MODEL REASONABLY
GENERATES PRECIP IN THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE
WITH SWD DISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL MCV/TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN KS.  PROFILER/VWP WINDS
INDICATE 500 MB SPEED MAX OF 20-30 KT ACROSS NWRN AND W-CENTRAL
OK...AND E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  WHEN COMBINED WITH CURVING 0-3 KM
AGL HODOGRAPHS...MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FOR STORM
ROTATION...ESPECIALLY FOR DEVIANT SEWD CELL MOTIONS.  EXPECT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

35320128 35780083 36110058 36360037 36540015 36989985
37009953 36959922 36669902 35989933 35599949 35289987
35160046 35180107 

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