[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221920 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT...YELLOWSTONE AP AREA OF
WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221920Z - 222045Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SWRN MT
AND NERN ID.  DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EACH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY FROM ERN PORTION OF MTNS ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND
HIGH PLAINS OF WRN MT...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS YELLOWSTONE REGION.  WW
MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM LOW INVOF
SMN TO INTERSECTION WITH SFC FRONTAL ZONE INVOF LWT.  STRONGEST
REGIONAL SFC PRESSURE FALLS WERE ANALYZED AT 19Z ACROSS SWRN
MT...EXTREME E-CENTRAL ID...AND NW CORNER OF WY...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APCHG FROM PACIFIC NW. 
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES NWWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH PROXIMITY TO
UPPER TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE WITH TIME OVER WHOLE REGION. 
EXPECT 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OVERSPREAD REGION.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH MLCAPES
500-750 J/KG ACROSS REGION BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z GTF RAOB AND RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS.  BEST OVERLAP WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL MT SW-WNW OF
LWT...WHERE STORMS MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT COULD DEVELOP INTO SHORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

44591125 44571225 45101299 46091382 46891413 48061354
48111149 47671018 47050923 45500833 45090895 44650980
44491078 

WWWW