[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221711 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221711Z - 221915Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL
MS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25KT INTO
W-CENTRAL AL THROUGH 1830Z. 

DIURNAL HEATING HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MS AT 17Z. THIS MCV IS THE RESULT OF
ERN TX CONVECTION YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THE MCV CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EWD IN MODEST SRN BRANCH MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION. 

AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 J/KG
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOIST AND
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD CU FIELD EAST OF
ONGOING STORMS. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE WEAK
INHIBITION...WITH ABSOLUTE CIN LESS THAN 25 J/KG. JACKSON VAD
INDICATES 30KT WLY FLOW AT 3KM TO THE SW OF THE MCV. THIS MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS
AROUND 13 KFT SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..BANACOS.. 08/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

33508863 33508711 33468595 33138541 32648510 32088506
31778536 31638585 31578640 31638705 31748766 31808809
31898853 32218887 

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