[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212122 
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN CO...ERN NM...AND THE DAVIS MTNS AREA OF
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212122Z - 212315Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SWRN TX. WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AT 21Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG THE
CO FRONT RANGE FROM 20N COS SWD TO NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. OTHER
CELLS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM SWD TO 50SE GDP.
STORM MOTIONS WERE GENERALLY SE AT 10-15 KT.

SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS ERN NM AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS SERN CO ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS CO /AROUND
30KT/...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED LESS
ORGANIZATION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM/SWRN TX...HOWEVER...CAPE IS
SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SLOW EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NM MAY ENHANCE MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 08/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

36840513 38360557 39210548 39660493 39720380 39400316
38050300 36520302 33910306 32590313 31780305 31190302
31010354 31080417 31520449 32620486 34330508 

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