[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212106 
SDZ000-NDZ000-212230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212106Z - 212230Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING
STORMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM WRN
BURLEIGH COUNTY SWWD INTO CNTRL GRANT COUNTY MOVING E AT 35-40KT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM
SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT...AND ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS WARMED WELL INTO THE
80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 300-400 J/KG. RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 08/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45870200 47110110 47580015 47549878 46939854 45929841
44989870 44769991 44940129 45300193 

WWWW