[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212035 
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 773...

VALID 212035Z - 212200Z

BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES INITIATED ON SEA BREEZE
BUT WILL BE PROPAGATING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR REMAINDER
AFTERNOON.  MOST INTENSE CELLS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR BOUNDARY
INTERSECTIONS WHERE LIFT IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.  70 KT GUST REPORTED EARLIER IN DARE
COUNTY NC.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED THERMAL/BUOYANCY AXIS W OF
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS VA/NC...ROUGHLY FROM 20 SE RIC TO
SSC...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS 88-90 F AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S.  THIS
YIELDS MLCAPES CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  CAPE
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OR DECEASE JUST SLIGHTLY IN THIS
CORRIDOR OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS DIABATIC HEATING MOVES PAST
PEAK...AND WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION OVER
PIEDMONT MOVING TOWARD WRN PORTION WW.

..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

39737369 39717594 42717218 42726983 

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