[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211908 
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...CT...RI...PORTIONS SERN PA...SERN NY...MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 772...

VALID 211908Z - 212115Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW BOW/LEWP FEATURES
WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND -- WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE GUST THREAT AS
IT MOVES EWD 25-30 KT ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA.  FOREGOING AIR MASS
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND IS CHARACTERIZED BY 70S F SFC
DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.  BUOYANCY IS
SOMEWHAT DECREASED FROM EARLIER BECAUSE OF ANVIL SHADOWING AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.  THIS STILL IS
SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY FORWARD-PROPAGATING
ACROSS REMAINDER SRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN DEEP LAYER OF 30-50
KT/UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW.  SEVERE THREAT WILL END BEHIND PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE LINE WITH BOTH CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION AND POSTFRONTAL
CAA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE NJ AND SEVERE THREAT IS
DIMINISHING THERE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

39737369 39717594 42717218 42726983 

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