[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192220 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192220Z - 200015Z

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  GIVEN MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
NW TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT THAT THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING INTO IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
J/KG AND MODEST LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
F...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH TCC PROFILER INDICATING SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. 
GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG SHEAR PROFILE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DISORGANIZED...BUT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..LEVIT.. 08/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

32710023 33459915 34139935 34790000 34020165 33580267
33180321 32520314 32460143 

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