[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192250 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192250Z - 200015Z

STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN
MO AND INTO SRN IL.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS SRN IL ATTM...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
IS INDICATED.  MODEST /AROUND 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS
REGION IS SUPPORTING SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION / LONGEVITY...BUT
ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION BEGINS.

ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS
EVENING...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES
NEWD OUT OF NERN OK AND 30 TO 35 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS /
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 08/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

38129115 38738896 38588709 38118700 37408838 36939060
37089173 37499173 

WWWW