[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192102 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-192230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IND/MUCH OF CENTRAL OH/SRN
PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 762...763...

VALID 192102Z - 192230Z

ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL
IND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OH TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA.

REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OH TO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL PA.  AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS FOR
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ESEWD OF WW
762 ACROSS SERN PA.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORMS HAVE TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST OF WW 762.  THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE
OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS HAD LESS MIXING TIME...THAN OCCURRED FARTHER
TO THE WEST.  AIR MASS OVER SERN PA IS SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH WEAKER
WIND FIELDS.  HOWEVER...IF THIS AIR MASS CAN BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..PETERS.. 08/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

40328549 40848194 40797716 40247639 39597687 39727941
39598204 39278537