[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171757 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-171900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MO INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171757Z - 171900Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19Z.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN WI
TO FAR SERN IA TO NERN KS.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH HAS
CONTINUED TO MOISTEN AND WARM...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL.  ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN IA APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ATTM...BUT
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THE ALREADY WEAK CAP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  CU HAS ALSO
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER NERN IL /EAST OF RFD/. 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN IA WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY
MOVE ESEWD INTO A REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY...WEAKENING
INHIBITION...AND AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NERN IL TO NRN MO.

INCREASING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 08/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

40389313 41409122 42139060 41978838 41108802 40278846
39328950 38939067 38849163 39599297 

WWWW