[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171838 
NMZ000-AZZ000-172115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 171838Z - 172115Z

ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND THE MTNS OF SERN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE MOVING
SSEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS
OF SERN AZ AND INCREASING DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. RECENT VWP DATA FROM PHOENIX AND TUCSON
SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL NWLY 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ
HAVE BEEN SELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT. THE
DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED ROTATION IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST ISOLATED
SVR POTENTIAL OVER THE PHX METRO AREA SWD TO NEAR TUS...WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPES EXISTS. FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE INTERIOR PLATEAU REGION OF NERN AZ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT AS CONVECTION MOVE SEWD INTO THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE 500-700 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN MOGOLLON RIM AND ADJACENT LOWER MTNS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31521166 32331213 33311228 34811300 35491300 36961217
36840939 34500897 33470910 32390912 31350914 

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