[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170154 
ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-170400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 755...

VALID 170154Z - 170400Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL 02Z.  NEED FOR A NEW WW
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN
TO STABILIZE  SOUTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. 
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE DEVELOPING INVERSION LAYER REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH 06Z...AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST ALONG WITH
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

..KERR.. 08/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41819642 42659494 42529373 42239267 41719106 41099100
40719153 40759278 41279406 41449474 41749555 

WWWW