[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170029 
AZZ000-170230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 170029Z - 170230Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN/ERN
PHOENIX METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OCCUR IN THIS AREA. SHORT DURATION AND EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT WILL OCCUR WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM TUS INDICATED A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER SRN
AZ WITH PW/S AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY HAS AIDED IN A MORE WLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE WRN MOGOLLON RIM REGION OF WCENTRAL AZ WHERE BACKBUILDING
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION THAT
HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE CENTRAL RIM WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE
WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON THE WRN RIM ENHANCING THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD POOL IN THIS AREA.

10-15 KT BACKGROUND NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING OF
THE COLD POOL SHOULD AID IN ACCELERATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE SWD AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE PHX METRO AREA OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PHX METRO AREA AND
WHEN THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
LINE MOVING SWD OUT OF THE RIM...SHOULD  AID IN SHORT TERM
STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AND GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS/SVR HAIL.

..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

32961180 32981303 33461341 34411333 34551317 34181140
33811111 33451099 33211142 

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