[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160645 
KSZ000-COZ000-160845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...FAR ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160645Z - 160845Z

A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING SWD THROUGH FAR WRN KS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM NW OK TO
NWRN KS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS A
RESULT...MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS WRN KS ARE STILL BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200
J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS. SLY SFC WINDS
AND SSWLY FLOW AT 850 MB IS RESULTING IN VEERED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT LINE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP.
HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD AT 30 MPH INTO SW KS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 08/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37180204 39490268 39560039 37419987 

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