[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160014 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN NEB...ERN SD...CNTRL/SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754...

VALID 160014Z - 160215Z

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEYOND
02Z...BUT NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE REMAINING
VALID PORTION OF WW 754 TIL 02Z EXPIRATION.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.  WHILE THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
ABOVE STABLE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

IN HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST...
...ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.  ONGOING STORMS
NEAR ALLIANCE MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH WEAK NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.

..KERR.. 08/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

40830329 42070330 42520163 42960011 43819809 44849672
45599633 46329563 46469443 45789314 44519331 43419477
42949666 42399877 41880122 41650230 40730279 

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