[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161739 
NMZ000-AZZ000-161845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN AZ AND SWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161739Z - 161845Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN AZ
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SPREAD SEWD INTO SWRN NM. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  

REGIONAL RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AROUND TUS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A
BAND OF 20-30 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER SERN
AZ AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THE AIR MASS WNWWD
TOWARD PHX IS DESTABILIZING AS WELL... SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WEAK MEAN FLOW AND HIGH PW VALUES /AROUND
1.5 INCHES/ WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.  

STEEP LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED ON 14Z TUS SOUNDING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL.  IF RADAR/
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...A
PORTION OF THIS AREA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN
THE 20Z OUTLOOK AND MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

..PETERS.. 08/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31631197 32361266 33081344 33621334 34091263 33481137
33151078 33250915 33090777 32070749 31500771 31170880
31271109 

WWWW