[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152201 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-160000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754...

VALID 152201Z - 160000Z

CONTINUE WW 754.  NEW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTH
OF CHAMBERLAIN SD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ALLIANCE NEB.  THIS IS WHERE
STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN REACHED NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

40 KT CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL HELP FOCUS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION JUST EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW...ACROSS THE
CHAMBERLAIN/HURON/MITCHELL SD AREA BY 16/00Z.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING
NEAR/NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

..KERR.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

44159825 44569741 44899665 44899525 44349458 43779453
43469476 43109512 42709598 42679696 42519868 42460001
41970147 41640221 42150286 43200247 44100010 44089922 

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