[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152138 
NVZ000-CAZ000-152345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA...PORTIONS OF SERN CA AND SWRN NV

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 152138Z - 152345Z

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. ENHANCED MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY MARGINAL.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JET RELATED CIRRUS STREAKS
RAPIDLY MOVING EWD OVER THE SRN CENTRAL VALLEY/CENTRAL COAST REGION.
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MERCED HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION IN
RESPONSE TO THIS ENHANCEMENT OF FLOW. INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SRN
SIERRA NV SWD INTO SWRN NV AND SERN CA. AROUND 30 KTS OF CLOUD
BEARING SHEAR AND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW
FOR SOME STORM ROTATION AND STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO SUPPORT
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH DESERT REGION OF SWRN
NV/SERN CA...WILL AID IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 IN/HR.

..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX...

35211821 35841831 36861852 37211875 37541893 37911859
37871766 37241647 36681557 36271525 34871497 34241505
34001555 33951596 34411739 

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