[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152007 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152007Z - 152200Z

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FROM NCENTRAL
INTO SCENTRAL CO MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
AND COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE MTNS INTO THE FRONT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF DEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOUR AND OVER THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AREA OF FAR SERN WY.

FLOW HAS BECOME PRIMARILY DUE ELY OVER THE FRONT RANGE ENHANCING
UPSLOPE INTO THE REGION. 20 KT NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE
LOWER WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ENOUGH STORM ROTATION FOR AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH JUST EAST OF DEN AND OVER
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OVER
1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID
IN MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORM MOTIONS OVER THIS AREA SHOULD
BE SSWLY AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

37080488 37370517 38040538 38680557 39210582 40270552
41060513 41500447 41360411 40730368 39430388 37130412 

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