[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151955 
TXZ000-NMZ000-152230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM EWD INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 151955Z - 152230Z

AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN NM EWD
INTO NWRN TX ALONG DEEP LAYER CONFLUENT AXIS AND MODERATE-HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES. RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN TX.

UPPER VORT CENTERS OVER SWRN NM AND SWRN TX WILL CONTINUED TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ENCOUNTERING UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER ERN NM. CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDES OF THESE FEATURES
SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SERN CO AND A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DYING CONVECTION OVER OK WILL AID IN
STRENGTHENING A DEEP LAYER OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE
REGION FROM WCENTRAL INTO NWRN TX AS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL
VWP/PROFILER DATA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST MID
LEVELS WITH PW/S FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
THEREFORE...WITH EXPECTED EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION...FOCUSED E-W
ORIENTED REGION OF DEEP CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS WILL ALL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33930614 33930799 33230844 32630793 32120676 31990590
32040450 32230286 32410203 32759965 33489924 33899951
34200052 34080142 34020415 

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