[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151843 
SDZ000-NEZ000-152045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN...CENTRAL AND ERN SD AND FAR NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151843Z - 152045Z

ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INTO SWRN SD AND
NWRN NEB. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
ERN SD...SHOULD BE LATER IN THIS AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 20Z.

VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES BEGINNING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER SWRN SD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF PHP SWWD TO NEAR CDR NEB.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL SD TO THE WEST OF
PIR ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND OVER ERN SD TO THE SOUTH OF ABR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE EVIDENT ON RECENT REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PER EXPANDING STRATOCUMULUS FIELD
OVER SWRN NEB...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA.
PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

42620399 43530211 44350056 45609851 45249769 44789718
42610016 41750288 

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