[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151833 
NCZ000-152030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NC COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151833Z - 152030Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
THE COASTAL FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARALLEL TO AND
IMMEDIATELY INLAND FROM THE NC COAST.  THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ALONG
AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG/.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MAXIMIZED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  THERE WILL BE A NARROW
CORRIDOR WITH SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADO THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT ILM TO EWN TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO
WATCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER FLOW.

..THOMPSON.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

34527743 34407783 34587815 34807799 35007769 35387701
35547642 35507598 35167587 

WWWW