[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132230 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CENTRAL NM AND SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751...

VALID 132230Z - 140030Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF WW 751 DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER ECENTRAL NM WHERE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING ACROSS ERN NM AND
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION AND A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE MARGINAL OVER SERN CO...AS BILLOWS NOTED IN CU FIELD INDICATE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CINH. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE REST OF WW 751 AROUND WW EXPIRATION TIME
/02Z/ DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES.

AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST OUTSIDE
OF WW 751 OVER CENTRAL/SERN NM. OVER CENTRAL NM...CONVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL SURGE MOVES SEWD INTO THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRAND RIVER VALLEY. AND OVER SERN NM....ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL MOVE SSEWD AND ALSO MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT
INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.

..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

34110334 34110572 38520512 38500255 

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