[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131702 
FLZ000-131830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 749...

VALID 131702Z - 131830Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF WW 749
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
REQUIRED.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES FROM POLK COUNTY SEWD TO NEAR AND S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
LIFTING NNWWD AT 30-40KTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THINNING OF HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES NOW 1500-2500 J/KG N OF THE LAKE.
MOREOVER...AXIS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 200-250 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD OR NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PENINSULA
AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND AND
ANTICIPATED NWD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A
REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

..MEAD.. 08/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...

24547978 24558198 29308299 29328058 

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