[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131821 
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO  SWD INTO ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131821Z - 131945Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED BY TO 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND ALSO NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE E /NEAR AND S OF LHX/.
STRONG INSOLATION COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD SUPPORT A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE
PRIMARY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE E ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH.

GIVEN 30-35KT NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS /OBSERVED ON TUCUMCARI NM AND
GRANADA CO PROFILERS/ ATOP SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST ANY ROTATING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z.

..MEAD.. 08/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37060592 38020566 38520420 38480308 37840259 36410309
34410373 33800442 33630499 33950592 

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