[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131531 
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-131700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131531Z - 131700Z

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
REGION IS BEING UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.

A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER E-CNTRL NY IS RESULTING IN SSELY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT BONNIE
CIRCULATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..MEAD.. 08/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

40977387 41637390 42657326 42737251 42717135 42567051
41766987 40937044 40507282 

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