[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130100 
FLZ000-130330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND LOWER FL KEYS INTO SRN FL AND ADJACENT
MARINE ZONES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130100Z - 130330Z

TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FL KEYS AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES.
THIS THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO SRN FL OVERNIGHT.  A TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

CUBAN WEATHER RADARS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HRCN CHARLEY WAS
JUST NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND MOVING NNW AT 17 MPH. KEY WEST
RADAR SHOWS OUTER RAINBANDS EMERGING INTO THE FL STRAITS...AND A FEW
TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED 20-40NM SOUTH OF KEYW.  THIS IS ABOUT 150
MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE HRCN. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE TURNED ELY ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CENTER OF CHARLEY APPROACHES.  AS
A RESULT...THE TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL INCREASE.  IF THE
CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF STORMS CONTINUE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE FORT
MEYERS/PORT CHARLOTTE AREAS BY 12 UTC. EWD EXTENT COULD VERY WELL
INCLUDE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS WELL...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
ALONG THE SWRN COAST OF FL INCLUDING THE KEYS OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 08/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...

23878220 27028223 26738101 25708049 24608060 23818119 

WWWW