[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130026 
COZ000-NMZ000-130200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746...

VALID 130026Z - 130200Z

WW 746 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUING THREAT FOR
MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SSEWD INVOF
HIGHER TERRAIN/I-25 FROM SCNTRL CO INTO NE NM...WITH FURTHER SWD
PROGRESSION OF INTENSE SUPERCELL /LINCOLN CO/ AND OTHER SEVERE TSTMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 ACROSS ECNTRL NM.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IN ACCORDANCE WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS/VAD
WIND DATA SUGGEST E/SELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO/ERN NM...CONTRIBUTING TO 40 KTS OR GREATER
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NM...WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG RESIDE PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY HAZARD ACROSS WW 746...WITH ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT
MAY PERSIST ACROSS ERN NM...INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 746 WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 08/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

37570638 37560309 33660307 32750319 32680420 32680531
32800607 33150649 33750622 

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