[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121911 
COZ000-NMZ000-122045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO INTO NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121911Z - 122045Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE CO/NM
STATE LINE THAT EXTENDS ESEWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL OK.
LOCALLY-BACKED WINDS INVOF THIS FEATURE HAVE MAINTAINED MID 50S
DEWPOINTS ALONG AND W OF A TAD TO RTN LINE. WHEN COUPLED WITH
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC
HEATING...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES
AOA 1000 J/KG.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING TCU/SMALL CBS EVOLVING
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN 35-45KT NWLY WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE 5-7KM LAYER AT THE TUCUMCARI NM AND GRANADA CO
PROFILER SITES...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.

INITIALLY...MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SELY FARTHER S
ACROSS E-CNTRL NM...SUPPORTING A SWD EXTENSION OF MORE FAVORABLE
SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY
DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS /AND INHERENTLY GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT/ WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..MEAD.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

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