[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121816 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND PORTIONS OF TX/OK
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121816Z - 122015Z

TSTMS MAY POSE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST HAZARD THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY AT MIDDAY...WITH SFC RESPONSE EVIDENT IN MASS FIELDS ACROSS
SRN KS/NRN OK. ACCORDINGLY LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING
TSTM COVERAGE FROM FAR SRN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND TX PANHANDLE AS
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. 

DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE /HIGHEST ACROSS NW OK/
AND MINIMAL CINH. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES -- AS
EVIDENT IN HAVILAND/LAMONT PROFILERS AND AREA VAD DATA -- WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE RELATIVELY LOW
FREEZING LEVELS/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.

..GUYER.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37680001 37689851 37319738 36409686 35709659 34899674
34879885 35259997 36200108 37000137 37430121 

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