[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121734 
DEZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-121900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC NWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121734Z - 121900Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NC/VA WITH AN ATTENDANT
45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NC.
MOST INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY BEING REFLECTED BY MESOLOW WHICH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
OVER N-CNTRL SC OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY
MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ALONG SIMILAR TRACK TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX.

LOCALIZED PRESSURE FALLS/ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ALONG THIS LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...GIVEN
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS
PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY.

..MEAD.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

35467994 38657958 38737568 35387618 

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