[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121650 
FLZ000-GAZ000-121745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL/NRN PENINSULA INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 742...

VALID 121650Z - 121745Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF T.S. BONNIE TRACK. A
NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS OF 1635Z...TLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF BONNIE 45SSE OF
TLH MOVING NEWD AT 20-25KTS. CURRENT TLH VWP INDICATES STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3KM AGL WITH 0-1/0-3KM SRH
VALUES OF 215 AND 333 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. LATEST OBJECTIVE FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS ALONG BONNIE TRACK HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG FROM THE FL BIG
BEND/NRN PENINSULA INTO SERN GA.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
INVOF BONNIE...LARGER-SCALE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS SAME
REGION NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS IS MOIST/UNSTABLE AND
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW
742 WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPIRE AT 1800Z.

AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS
PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCES AND
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY.

..MEAD.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

31908444 31898050 28888182 28948540 

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