[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121600 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-121730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/ERN PA/NJ AND WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121600Z - 121730Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM ERN PA NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND
WRN MA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING ALONG/E OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND WITHIN BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG SSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 40-50KTS AT 500MB/. EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS
PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP PROCEDURE FOR WATCH ISSUANCES AND
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY.

..MEAD.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

39937512 40707626 42617501 44647325 44927219 44347107
42617168 41137294 40067376 

WWWW