[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121402 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-121530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA / SC INTO SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121402Z - 121530Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN GA NEWD ACROSS SC. THIS ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY E OF ATL WHICH IS
EFFECTIVELY BACKING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NERN GA AND MUCH OF SC.
MODIFICATION OF CHARLESTON VWP WITH THESE CURRENT SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS YIELDS 100-150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND 35-40KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT
LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY
BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

..MEAD.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

32338368 34988117 34527782 32008044 

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