[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121200 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 121200Z - 121500Z

CHANCES FOR ISOLD TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF SWRN GA THROUGH THIS
MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVES ASHORE. A TORNADO WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

EVX RADAR REVEALS THE RAGGED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE
MAKING STEADY NWD PROGRESS TOWARD THE FL PNHDL EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT 11Z/7AM EDT...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH BUOY
42039 /85NM SSW PAM/...WHERE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 50KT. LATEST
RECON DATA ALSO INDICATED A BAND OF 35-40KT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL
FLOW WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF BONNIE AND THIS WIND FIELD IS
CONSISTENT WITH ALL SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SATELLITE AND MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT BONNIE WILL BE RAPIDLY ASSIMILATED BY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...BONNIE SHOULD
ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA LATER THIS
MORNING.

LATEST VWP DATA FROM EVX AND TLH SHOWED GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR RESULTED IN WEAK 0-1KM SRH AOB 100 M2/S2.
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE CIRCULATION
CENTER NEARS THE COAST AND BAND OF STRONGER FLOW WITHIN THE ERN/NERN
QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
ETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT 0-1KM SRH OF AT LEAST 150 M2/S2 SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND LOW LCLS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TORNADO
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE WIND
FIELDS AND HELICITY WILL BE GREATEST.

IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A LARGER REGION... DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SRN GA LATER THIS MORNING AS
SYSTEM BECOMES INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCELERATES INLAND. AS
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVER THIS LARGER AREA...EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WELL AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER.

..CARBIN.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30388631 31808505 31948398 31788178 29498194 29548505 

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