[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120809 
GAZ000-ALZ000-121045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AL INTO NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120809Z - 121045Z

ISOLD SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL AND NWRN
GA NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT
THIS TIME.

INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE WAS SITUATED GENERALLY WSW TO
ENE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA EARLY TODAY. TSTMS ARE
INCREASING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDENT WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK TO SUPPORT STRONG LOW
LEVEL STORM ROTATION...COMBINATION OF STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND 35-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS/STORM PERSISTENCE. GIVEN LOW LCL...
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE
WAVES...AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
BE OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PROHIBITING THE FORMATION DISCRETE CELLS.

..CARBIN.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

33918349 33188494 32938681 33318732 33848711 34498438 

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