[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111941 
NMZ000-112115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111941Z - 112115Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA AND A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN RANGES OF N-CNTRL NM WITHIN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
/PER MODIFICATION OF 18Z ABQ SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS/. FARTHER E ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN
NM...AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WHILE SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LESS
STABILITY OVER THE SERN PART OF THE STATE. CONTINUED HEATING OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD AID THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALONG/E OF
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR THE SEWD MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

36910684 36950417 32040408 32030655 

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