[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111816 
TXZ000-112045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111816Z - 112045Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN
TX PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYAL OF
MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. ACCORDINGLY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EPISODIC
PULSE SEVERE WILL BE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 20 KTS/.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

30260008 30289914 30759826 31549782 32169691 33189615
32669546 31659475 31539460 30309526 29699655 29059853
29550013 

WWWW